Same average return, three different orderings — the early years matter enormously when you're withdrawing. A bear market in retirement years 1-3 can deplete a portfolio that would otherwise have lasted decades.
Same average return, three different orderings — bad-first (bear years up front), good-first (bear years at end), and constant return. Shows how the order matters enormously when you're withdrawing, even though the long-run average is identical.
New retirees and pre-retirees. The single year you retire matters disproportionately — a bear market in retirement years 1-3 can deplete a portfolio that the same average return constant would never deplete.
Doesn't model strategies to mitigate sequence risk (cash bucket, variable-withdrawal rules, partial annuity floor) — those are separate decisions informed by this risk.
Three scenarios use the same average return but different orderings: bad-first (bear years up front), good-first (bear years at end), constant (every year identical). Compounding withdrawals on a depleted base in the first scenario causes the cliff.