Long-Term Care Cost Modeler

What it does

Models the cost of long-term care over a probable duration, weighted by the probability you'll need it (~70% for 65+). Compares self-funding from your portfolio vs paying LTC insurance premiums.

Who this helps

Anyone 50-65 evaluating LTC insurance, or in their 60s deciding to self-fund. Single largest tail risk in retirement — $60K-$110K/yr care for 3+ years can wipe out a plan.

How to use it

1. Enter your current age and your estimated probability of needing care (70% default).
2. Set expected duration (3 years average) and care type (in-home vs nursing home).
3. Enter LTC insurance premium, daily benefit, benefit period, and inflation rider.
4. Set your investment return on premium dollars if you self-funded instead.
5. Read the verdict — insurance vs self-fund net expected cost.

What it doesn't do

Doesn't model hybrid LTC products (life insurance with LTC rider) — those are different math. Doesn't account for insurance underwriting denial — many people get rejected, especially after age 70 or with health conditions.